Resilient demand for air cargo
Air cargo traffic (based on revenue tonne-kilometers) is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent over the next 20 years. Growing world trade, increasing demand for transport of perishable and time-sensitive commodities, and the need to replace aging airplanes will create a requirement for 2,960 freighter deliveries over the next 20 years. About 1,990 of these will be conversions from passenger service, and 970 airplanes with a value of US$250 billion will be delivered new. The air cargo fleet will grow at an annual rate of 3.5 percent, nearly doubling from 1,760 airplanes in 2010 to 3,500 in 2030.
Standard-body freighter market favors conversions
The largest segment of this market by number of airplanes is standard-body freighters, with a total requirement for 1,240 airplanes. Airplanes converted from passenger to cargo have low capital costs that make them attractive for standard-body freight operations.
Express carriers driving medium widebody market
Of the 720 medium widebody freighters to be delivered during the forecast period, 280 will be new, purpose-built freighters. This freighter segment is largely driven by express carriers with time-sensitive cargo. The larger capacity of medium widebody versus standard-body freighters provides operating cost advantages in this market. Though large freighters hold a greater economic advantage in range and tonne-kilometers, the lower trip costs of medium widebody freighters offer greater flexibility in the scheduling and frequency of shipments.
Intercontinental market favors new large freighters
In the large freighter segment, more than half of the demand will be for new airplanes. The purchase price of converted large freighters is very attractive, and conversions will continue to play an important supporting role. However, the performance and reliability advantages of new, purpose-built freighters are significant for intercontinental cargo operations, where larger, heavier payloads and range are crucial. Of the 1,000 large freighter deliveries, 690 will be new airplanes.
