Industry growth in an era of uncertainty
Boeing's business analysis includes extensive study of global geopolitical dynamics that influence commercial aviation. This research focuses on current events as well as long-term trends. The analysis helps to determine risk and opportunity in the commercial aviation market as a whole, and in specific regions around the world.
Recent global events, including regional political turmoil, natural disasters, and debt crises, have affected global economic growth. While growth is expected to recover, the risk of persistent high oil prices and debt contagion could have lasting effects. Economic growth also could be affected by slowing trade liberalization in some regions. Reduced liberalization could prolong the recovery period, adversely affecting the demand for air travel and new airplanes.
WTO rulings and airplane finance
Government subsidies for aircraft development remain a concern; however, recent World Trade Organization rulings make clear that such government support must be provided on commercial terms. In the area of export finance, the new Aircraft Sector Understanding agreement implemented in early 2011 helps to level the playing field for aircraft manufacturers and airlines.
Unlike trade liberalization, the pace of air services liberalization has not slowed significantly, although some governments are resistant to further progress. Much of this is due to a reluctance to allow increased foreign ownership levels in domestic airlines. Continued aviation liberalization stimulates competition, giving passengers more choices and generally lowering ticket prices, which increases demand for air travel.
Infrastructure, Environment, and Security
The Current Market Outlook projects that the global large commercial airplane fleet will nearly double by the year 2030. This level of growth will require a significant infrastructure investment to accommodate increased traffic. Air traffic management modernization initiatives are critical for both capacity enhancement and system efficiency.
The aviation industry is addressing environmental challenges with a three-pronged strategy of designing more efficient aircraft, improving operational procedures, and developing sustainable biofuels. Moreover, governments throughout the world are aligning with the industry's strategies to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutral growth. This approach will allow the industry to grow over the long term, despite anticipated regulatory constraints.
While significant improvements in aviation security have been made globally since 9/11, constant vigilance is still required. Security concerns will continue to affect commercial aviation operations.
